19 Oct · 18:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1325
FormWWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Zwolinski
MZ
🇵🇱Mariusz Zwolinski
ELO 1346
FormWWWWL
48%
52%
🌟Lukaszewski covers set handicap as underdog 72% (32)
Fair odds · Zwolinski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~80 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+21
H2H6-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.