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19 Oct · 22:35 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
MZMariusz Zwolinski
🇵🇱Mariusz Zwolinski
ELO 1348
3-2Final setsZwolinski won
MLMikolaj Lukaszewski
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1326
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Zwolinski at 52%. The actual result was Mariusz Zwolinski 3-2 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Mikolaj Lukaszewski favoured — closing 1.75
Upset
Set handicap
Mikolaj Lukaszewski −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Mikolaj Lukaszewski −1.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Exact score
market priced 3-2 at close
4.8
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Mariusz Zwolinski is favoured to win, below means Mikolaj Lukaszewski.

▲ Mariusz Zwolinskipre 56% → final 4%
Mikolaj Lukaszewski ▼
Biggest swing 54 ptsLukaszewski recovered from 44%51 points · 3 games