20 Oct · 06:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kapik
ELO 1693
FormWLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kapik
MK
🇵🇱Maciej Kolek
ELO 1653
FormLLWWW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Kapik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 63% · 1.59· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+40
H2H30-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.