20 Oct · 07:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1503
FormWWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Urban
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1527
FormLWLLL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Marud🌟Marud covers set handicap as underdog 76% (17)
Fair odds · Urban
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+24
H2H61-61
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.