20 Oct · 09:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PA
🇵🇱Pawel Adamus
ELO 1483
FormLWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Ruszkiewicz
AR
🇵🇱Adam Ruszkiewicz
ELO 1512
FormLLLLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Adamus🌟Ruszkiewicz rarely covers set handicap as favourite 21% (24)
Fair odds · Ruszkiewicz
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+29
H2H4-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.