20 Oct · 08:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1520
FormLLLLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1596
FormWLWLW
42%
58%
🌟Adamus covers set handicap as underdog 95% (21)
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+76
H2H42-35
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+76)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (42-35)