20 Oct · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KS
🇵🇱Kamil Smolka
ELO 1517
FormLLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Smolka
KA
🇵🇱Kacper Adamus
ELO 1485
FormLLLWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Smolka
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+32
H2H31-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.