20 Oct · 11:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kosmal
ELO 1623
FormLWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Filbrandt
TF
🇵🇱Tomasz Filbrandt
ELO 1662
FormWWLWW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kosmal🌟Filbrandt rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (68)
Fair odds · Filbrandt
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+39
H2H14-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.