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20 Oct · 12:10 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
MKMaciej Kolek
🇵🇱Maciej Kolek
ELO 1669
3-1Final setsKolek won
TFTomasz Filbrandt
🇵🇱Tomasz Filbrandt
ELO 1646
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Kolek at 53%. The actual result was Maciej Kolek 3-1 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Tomasz Filbrandt favoured — closing 1.75
Upset
Total 74.5
81 points played
Over
Set handicap
Tomasz Filbrandt −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Tomasz Filbrandt −1.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
4.2
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Maciej Kolek is favoured to win, below means Tomasz Filbrandt.

▲ Maciej Kolekpre 57% → final 98%
Tomasz Filbrandt ▼
Biggest swing 56 ptsKolek recovered from 42%72 points · 4 games