20 Oct · 22:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PK
🇵🇱Piotr Kaczynski
ELO 1523
FormWLLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Kaczynski
MK
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1521
FormWWWLL
50%
50%
🌟Koczyba rarely covers set handicap as underdog 33% (18)
Fair odds · Kaczynski
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 43% · 2.31· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H9-36
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.