21 Oct · 01:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇵🇱Marian Brunner
ELO 1446
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Brunner
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Pyrek
ELO 1427
FormLLWWL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Brunner
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H23-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.