21 Oct · 00:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1333
FormWLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lukaszewski
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1303
FormLWWLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rolak🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Lukaszewski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.15· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+30
H2H21-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.