21 Oct · 00:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AZ
🇵🇱Artur Zmijewski
ELO 1596
FormWWLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Zielinski
MZ
🇵🇱Marcin Zielinski
ELO 1650
FormWWLWW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Zielinski
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+54
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+54)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)