21 Oct · 07:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kapik
ELO 1689
FormWLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kapik
MK
🇵🇱Maciej Kolek
ELO 1665
FormWLLLW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Kapik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+24
H2H30-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.