21 Oct · 06:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AZ
🇵🇱Artur Zmijewski
ELO 1615
FormWWWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Zielinski
MZ
🇵🇱Marcin Zielinski
ELO 1657
FormWWLWW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Zielinski
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+42
H2H3-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+42)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-0)