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21 Oct · 07:30 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
BMBoguslaw Madej
🇵🇱Boguslaw Madej
ELO 1423
2-3Final setsDlugaj won
RDRafal Dlugaj
🇵🇱Rafal Dlugaj
ELO 1543
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Dlugaj at 62%. The actual result was Rafal Dlugaj 2-3 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Rafal Dlugaj favoured — closing 1.35
Favourite won
Total 73.5
89 points played
Over
Set handicap
Rafal Dlugaj −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Rafal Dlugaj −6.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Boguslaw Madej is favoured to win, below means Rafal Dlugaj.

▲ Boguslaw Madejpre 34% → final 9%
Rafal Dlugaj ▼
Biggest swing 41 pts72 points · 5 games