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21 Oct · 18:25 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
MKMariusz Koczyba
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1505
3-1Final setsKoczyba won
RARafal Adach
🇵🇱Rafal Adach
ELO 1349
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Koczyba at 65%. The actual result was Mariusz Koczyba 3-1 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Mariusz Koczyba favoured — closing 1.35
Favourite won
Total 72.5
80 points played
Over
Set handicap
Mariusz Koczyba −1.5 sets
Covered
Points handicap
Mariusz Koczyba −6.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
2.8
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Mariusz Koczyba is favoured to win, below means Rafal Adach.

▲ Mariusz Koczybapre 63% → final 93%
Rafal Adach ▼
Biggest swing 69 ptsKoczyba recovered from 30%72 points · 4 games