21 Oct · 21:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1316
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Szoltysek
AS
🇵🇱Artur Szoltysek
ELO 1321
FormWLLLW
49%
51%
🌟Kowalczyk covers set handicap as underdog 71% (41)
Fair odds · Szoltysek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.03· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.