21 Oct · 21:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PP
🇵🇱Pawel Polok
ELO 1522
FormLWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Polok
MK
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1505
FormWLLLW
52%
48%
🌟Koczyba rarely covers set handicap as underdog 33% (18)
Fair odds · Polok
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 55% · 1.82· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.