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21 Oct · 20:30 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
MZMariusz Zwolinski
🇵🇱Mariusz Zwolinski
ELO 1357
2-3Final setsKowalczyk won
MKMarcin Kowalczyk
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1302
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Zwolinski at 55%. The actual result was Marcin Kowalczyk 2-3 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Marcin Kowalczyk favoured — closing 1.7
Favourite won
Total 75.5
98 points played
Over
Set handicap
Marcin Kowalczyk −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Marcin Kowalczyk −2.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Mariusz Zwolinski is favoured to win, below means Marcin Kowalczyk.

▲ Mariusz Zwolinskipre 52% → final 5%
Marcin Kowalczyk ▼
Biggest swing 72 ptsKowalczyk recovered from 27%72 points · 5 games