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21 Oct · 21:55 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
MZMariusz Zwolinski
🇵🇱Mariusz Zwolinski
ELO 1357
3-1Final setsZwolinski won
BMBartlomiej Mrugala
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1340
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Zwolinski at 51%. The actual result was Mariusz Zwolinski 3-1 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Bartlomiej Mrugala favoured — closing 1.7
Upset
Total 76.5
77 points played
Over
Set handicap
Bartlomiej Mrugala −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Bartlomiej Mrugala −1.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
4.75
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Mariusz Zwolinski is favoured to win, below means Bartlomiej Mrugala.

▲ Mariusz Zwolinskipre 47% → final 100%
Bartlomiej Mrugala ▼
Biggest swing 60 ptsZwolinski recovered from 40%72 points · 5 games