22 Oct · 00:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PP
🇵🇱Pawel Polok
ELO 1527
FormWWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Polok
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1510
FormLWLLW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Polok
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.03· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H4-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.