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21 Oct · 22:25 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
MLMarian Lebek
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1565
2-3Final setsKoczyba won
MKMariusz Koczyba
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1534
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Lebek at 55%. The actual result was Mariusz Koczyba 2-3 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Mariusz Koczyba favoured — closing 1.52
Favourite won
Total 72.5
86 points played
Over
Set handicap
Mariusz Koczyba −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Mariusz Koczyba −4.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Marian Lebek is favoured to win, below means Mariusz Koczyba.

▲ Marian Lebekpre 52% → final 2%
Mariusz Koczyba ▼
Biggest swing 90 ptsKoczyba recovered from 9%72 points · 5 games