22 Oct · 01:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1534
FormWWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Koczyba
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1510
FormLWLLW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Koczyba
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 63% · 1.59· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+24
H2H22-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.