22 Oct · 01:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AS
🇵🇱Artur Szoltysek
ELO 1314
FormLLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Mrugala
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1340
FormWLWLL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Szoltysek🌟Mrugala rarely covers set handicap as favourite 22% (18)
Fair odds · Mrugala
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 55% · 1.83· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+26
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.