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22 Oct · 01:35 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
HTHenryk Tkaczyk
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1543
1-3Final setsKurek won
PKPawel Kurek
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1533
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Tkaczyk at 55%. The actual result was Pawel Kurek 1-3 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Tkaczyk favoured — closing 1.75
Upset
Total 76.5
73 points played
Under
Set handicap
Tkaczyk −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Tkaczyk −1.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 1-3 at close
3.85
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Henryk Tkaczyk is favoured to win, below means Pawel Kurek.

▲ Henryk Tkaczykpre 52% → final 1%
Pawel Kurek ▼
Biggest swing 77 ptsKurek recovered from 22%72 points · 4 games