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22 Oct · 02:45 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
MLMarian Lebek
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1557
1-3Final setsTkaczyk won
HTHenryk Tkaczyk
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1543
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Lebek at 51%. The actual result was Henryk Tkaczyk 1-3 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Tkaczyk favoured — closing 1.8
Favourite won
Total 74.5
75 points played
Over
Set handicap
Tkaczyk −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Tkaczyk −0.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 1-3 at close
3.8
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Marian Lebek is favoured to win, below means Henryk Tkaczyk.

▲ Marian Lebekpre 47% → final 5%
Henryk Tkaczyk ▼
Biggest swing 56 ptsTkaczyk recovered from 43%72 points · 4 games