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22 Oct · 07:10 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
RNRafal Niemiec
🇵🇱Rafal Niemiec
ELO 1597
3-2Final setsNiemiec won
LOLukasz Oracz
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1500
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Niemiec at 62%. The actual result was Rafal Niemiec 3-2 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Oracz favoured — closing 1.75
Upset
Total 75.5
93 points played
Over
Set handicap
Oracz −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Oracz −0.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Exact score
market priced 3-2 at close
4.85
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Rafal Niemiec is favoured to win, below means Lukasz Oracz.

▲ Rafal Niemiecpre 60% → final 100%
Lukasz Oracz ▼
Biggest swing 59 ptsNiemiec recovered from 41%72 points · 5 games