22 Oct · 20:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1490
FormLWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Stapor
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1461
FormLLWLW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 44% · 2.29· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+29
H2H19-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.