22 Oct · 22:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1490
FormLWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stapor
KR
🇵🇱Kamil Rudomina
ELO 1483
FormWLWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H20-28
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.