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22 Oct · 17:20 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
MKMarcin Kowalczyk
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1304
3-0Final setsKowalczyk won
MLMikolaj Lukaszewski
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1302
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Lukaszewski at 52%. The actual result was Marcin Kowalczyk 3-0 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Marcin Kowalczyk favoured — closing 1.75
Favourite won
Total 74.5
58 points played
Under
Set handicap
Marcin Kowalczyk −1.5 sets
Covered
Points handicap
Marcin Kowalczyk −1.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-0 at close
5.4
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Marcin Kowalczyk is favoured to win, below means Mikolaj Lukaszewski.

▲ Marcin Kowalczykpre 44% → final 99%
Mikolaj Lukaszewski ▼
Biggest swing 55 ptsKowalczyk recovered from 44%56 points · 3 games