22 Oct · 20:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1304
FormWWLLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Kowalczyk
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1256
FormLLWWL
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Golaszewski🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 23% (26)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+48
H2H45-34
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+48)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (45-34)