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22 Oct · 21:55 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
MTMateusz Trela
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1347
2-3Final setsMrugala won
BMBartlomiej Mrugala
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1321
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Trela at 53%. The actual result was Bartlomiej Mrugala 2-3 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Mateusz Trela favoured — closing 1.8
Upset
Total 77.5
90 points played
Over
Set handicap
Mateusz Trela −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Mateusz Trela −0.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Mateusz Trela is favoured to win, below means Bartlomiej Mrugala.

▲ Mateusz Trelapre 57% → final 11%
Bartlomiej Mrugala ▼
Biggest swing 86 ptsMrugala recovered from 12%72 points · 4 games