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22 Oct · 22:35 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
BMBartlomiej Mrugala
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1321
3-2Final setsMrugala won
JRJaroslaw Rolak
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1286
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Mrugala at 52%. The actual result was Bartlomiej Mrugala 3-2 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Jaroslaw Rolak favoured — closing 1.65
Upset
Set handicap
Jaroslaw Rolak −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Jaroslaw Rolak −2.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Exact score
market priced 3-2 at close
5.1
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Bartlomiej Mrugala is favoured to win, below means Jaroslaw Rolak.

▲ Bartlomiej Mrugalapre 49% → final 1%
Jaroslaw Rolak ▼
Biggest swing 61 ptsRolak recovered from 38%55 points · 3 games