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22 Oct · 23:20 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
MTMateusz Trela
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1347
3-1Final setsTrela won
JRJaroslaw Rolak
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1286
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Trela at 55%. The actual result was Mateusz Trela 3-1 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Jaroslaw Rolak favoured — closing 1.6
Upset
Total 76.5
77 points played
Over
Set handicap
Jaroslaw Rolak −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Jaroslaw Rolak −2.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
5.5
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Mateusz Trela is favoured to win, below means Jaroslaw Rolak.

▲ Mateusz Trelapre 52% → final 100%
Jaroslaw Rolak ▼
Biggest swing 49 pts72 points · 5 games