23 Oct · 13:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇵🇱Milosz Cesarz
ELO 1383
FormLLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Cesarz
WT
🇵🇱Wojciech Tobiasz
ELO 1364
FormWLLLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Cesarz
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.05· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.