23 Oct · 12:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PW
🇵🇱Piotr Wiciok
ELO 1482
FormWWLLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Wiciok
JP
🇵🇱Jerzy Pelka
ELO 1480
FormLLLLL
50%
50%
🌟Pelka covers set handicap as underdog 79% (34)
Fair odds · Wiciok
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 53% · 1.87· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.