23 Oct · 20:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JW
🇵🇱Jakub Wozniak
ELO 1393
FormWWWWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Malinowski
RM
🇵🇱Radoslaw Malinowski
ELO 1464
FormWWWWL
42%
58%
🌟Wozniak rarely covers set handicap as underdog 30% (20)
Fair odds · Malinowski
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+71
H2H11-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+71)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-8)