23 Oct · 19:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PA
🇵🇱Pawel Adamus
ELO 1476
FormWWLLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Vincenec
OV
🇵🇱Oliver Vincenec
ELO 1517
FormWLWWW
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Adamus
Fair odds · Vincenec
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 51% · 1.98· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+41
H2H8-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+41)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)