23 Oct · 18:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
CP
🇵🇱Cezary Pawlik
ELO 1660
FormLWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Oracz
JO
🇵🇱Jacek Oracz
ELO 1676
FormWLLWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.87· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H39-39
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.