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23 Oct · 19:20 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
BMBartlomiej Mrugala
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1330
2-3Final setsLukaszewski won
MLMikolaj Lukaszewski
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1310
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Mrugala at 52%. The actual result was Mikolaj Lukaszewski 2-3 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Bartlomiej Mrugala favoured — closing 1.75
Upset
Set handicap
Bartlomiej Mrugala −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Bartlomiej Mrugala −1.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Exact score
market priced 2-3 at close
4.9
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Bartlomiej Mrugala is favoured to win, below means Mikolaj Lukaszewski.

▲ Bartlomiej Mrugalapre 49% → final 5%
Mikolaj Lukaszewski ▼
Biggest swing 56 ptsLukaszewski recovered from 39%72 points · 5 games