24 Oct · 07:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Poloszczanski
ELO 1278
FormLLLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Wrobel
DW
🇵🇱Dariusz Wrobel
ELO 1347
FormLWWWL
42%
58%
🔥 Underdog lean · Poloszczanski🌟Wrobel rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (19)
Fair odds · Wrobel
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 68% · 1.46· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~80 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+69
H2H28-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+69)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (28-11)