25 Oct · 15:05 MEZLow · Slight Edge
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1530
FormLLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Tkaczyk
WW
🇵🇱Wojciech Wojtaszczyk
ELO 1503
FormLLLLL
53%
47%
🌟Wojtaszczyk stays under total as underdog 63% (65)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+27
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.