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25 Oct · 05:25 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
MMMateusz Misiak
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1379
3-1Final setsMisiak won
AMArkadiusz Mugowski
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1395
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Mugowski at 52%. The actual result was Mateusz Misiak 3-1 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Arkadiusz Mugowski favoured — closing 1.8
Upset
Total 75.5
76 points played
Over
Set handicap
Arkadiusz Mugowski −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Arkadiusz Mugowski −0.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
4.35
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Mateusz Misiak is favoured to win, below means Arkadiusz Mugowski.

▲ Mateusz Misiakpre 51% → final 76%
Arkadiusz Mugowski ▼
Biggest swing 31 pts72 points · 4 games