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25 Oct · 08:15 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
MTMateusz Trela
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1371
1-3Final setsMugowski won
AMArkadiusz Mugowski
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1395
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Mugowski at 54%. The actual result was Arkadiusz Mugowski 1-3 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Mugowski favoured — closing 1.55
Favourite won
Total 76.5
78 points played
Over
Set handicap
Mugowski −1.5 sets
Covered
Points handicap
Mugowski −3.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Mateusz Trela is favoured to win, below means Arkadiusz Mugowski.

▲ Mateusz Trelapre 42% → final 2%
Arkadiusz Mugowski ▼
Biggest swing 44 pts72 points · 4 games