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25 Oct · 15:35 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
JMJakub Michalczyk
🇵🇱Jakub Michalczyk
ELO 1405
3-1Final setsMichalczyk won
MMMateusz Misiak
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1374
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Michalczyk at 55%. The actual result was Jakub Michalczyk 3-1 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Mateusz Misiak favoured — closing 1.8
Upset
Total 75.5
67 points played
Under
Set handicap
Mateusz Misiak −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Mateusz Misiak −0.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
4.4
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Jakub Michalczyk is favoured to win, below means Mateusz Misiak.

▲ Jakub Michalczykpre 59% → final 99%
Mateusz Misiak ▼
Biggest swing 50 pts65 points · 4 games