26 Oct · 20:55 MEZLow · Slight Edge
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1381
FormWLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Trela
PS
🇵🇱Piotr Strus
ELO 1344
FormLWLLL
54%
46%
🌟Strus goes over total as underdog 65% (23)
Fair odds · Trela
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~80 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+37
H2H16-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.