26 Oct · 20:45 MEZLow · Slight Edge
JC
🇵🇱Jakub Cyndera
ELO 1509
FormWWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Gesiarz
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gesiarz
ELO 1525
FormLWWWW
48%
52%
🌟Gesiarz stays under total as favourite 66% (71)
Fair odds · Gesiarz
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 48% · 2.09· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H14-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.