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26 Oct · 23:15 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
MKMarcin Kowalczyk
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1315
2-3Final setsZwolinski won
MZMariusz Zwolinski
🇵🇱Mariusz Zwolinski
ELO 1354
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Kowalczyk at 50%. The actual result was Mariusz Zwolinski 2-3 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Marcin Kowalczyk favoured — closing 1.8
Upset
Total 74.5
90 points played
Over
Set handicap
Marcin Kowalczyk −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Marcin Kowalczyk −0.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Marcin Kowalczyk is favoured to win, below means Mariusz Zwolinski.

▲ Marcin Kowalczykpre 46% → final 77%
Mariusz Zwolinski ▼
Biggest swing 73 ptsKowalczyk recovered from 18%72 points · 5 games