27 Oct · 14:20 MEZLow · Slight Edge
PB
🇵🇱Piotr Brozek
ELO 1545
FormWWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Brozek
KS
🇵🇱Kamil Smolka
ELO 1512
FormWWLLW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Brozek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~81 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+33
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.